Feb
14, 2009
Today
we take a look at the end of Reaganomics as we knew it. I remember as a young
insurance professional in the early 80’s the public sentiment which was
embodied in the actions of President Reagan, was for decreased taxes on the
wealthy and decreased government involvement in the economy. Now, in 2009,
public sentiment, which has been embodied in the speeches of President Obama,
is for increased taxes on the wealthy and increased government involvement in
the economy. The following are words taken directly from President Obama:
“restore fairness to the tax code and provide 150 million workers with the tax
relief they need and eliminate all income taxation of seniors making less than
$50,000 per year.”
The Advocacy Network is committed to giving our members
clear concise and non biased information that will assist our clients (members)
in making smart decisions with money. We believe that practicing any political
partisanship will not serve our clients. (that is not to say that we are not
involved in the national and local political climate, as a responsible US
citizen that is a fundamental right), yet our viewpoints are strictly towards
events and how those will cause trends that all people need to be aware of in
order to make smart decisions about money.
For every action there is an equal an opposite reaction,
this is commonly referred to the Law of Unintended Consequences. Be prepared
because there will be a mountain of unintended consequences in the decision to
grow government involvement in the economy. That being said you can make these
unintended consequences work for you instead of against you, it does however
require that you be proactive in your decisions about money. Confidence is
waning and that causes PROCRASTINATION. The most damaging impact that can be
inflicted upon the market at any time is PROCRASTINATION, commonly referred to
as the decision to make NO DECISION. These “no decisions” are in essence very
powerful decisions which end up having huge impacts on the market place.
Let’s take a look at the present economic climate and
potential impacts. The recent economic crisis has resulted in the Federal
government taking substantial ownership
interests in many of America’s Financial Institutions (whether you
agree with this or not, it is what it is), this has led to an outcry for more
governmental oversight as the public’s faith in private market solutions has
been shaken. (More transparency should simplify this and hopefully allow people
to regain confidence in the private market).
During the Reagan years with its lower tax rates on the
wealthy (actually had the unintended
consequence of choking off infrastructure investment (tax shelters) as much of
the wealthy were willing to fund projects while at the 50% tax rate which while
lowered was also hindered by the infamous passive income ceilings which in
essence crippled the so-called tax shelter market) and its fundamental
faith in the private market, saw a boom of innovative but increased risk products
such as mutual funds and hedge funds. Now, many individuals see those products
as too risky and are looking for safer places to put their money.
This will create a trend towards fixed rate products such as
cash value life insurance and annuities. The trend towards protection products
should have never decreased yet most of the buying public fell victim to a lack
of clear transparency when it came to RISK. All investments are useful as long
proper suitability is established. This suitability is reliant upon a client
understanding the concept of RISK. No financial concept is more important to
the American family then that of risk management. The financial risks of
premature death, disability and living too long are the greatest risks our
economy ever faces. So the movement back to protection products is not in any
way a negative prospect.
Regardless of the given economic climate the great financial
staples will always be tax deferral, guarantees and safety of principal. Once a
foundation of protection is built then growth and accumulation can be directed
and planned for. Getting back to basics of protection is a very positive thing.
The unintended consequences of the most recent governmental
actions will be a strong market place for tax deferral, guarantees and safety
of principal. Once again the communication and understanding of risk will be
the most useful conversations individuals can have.
As to how the investment market place will be affected it is
too early to tell, yet there are some factors that can give you a preview.
Sectors to rely on will continue to be Technology, Financial and Energy. The
recent government stimulus package included 50 billion for the energy industry,
to put into renewable energy and clean energy programs. These programs will be
driven by innovations in technology so it would follow that technology will
enjoy and upward trend due to its causative relationship with energy. The
Financial sector will be stabilized by the Insurance industry (mostly due to
the previous points) but surely due to its consistent longevity and its basic
economic fundamental to the American family and business owner as it pertains
to risk management. Remember that the Life insurance industry has been around
since just before the Civil War and has not just survived but thrived in such
economic climates a World Wars, the great depression etc…, this industry has
actually given the banking industry the tremendous opportunity establish
itself. That very same banking industry has managed almost single-handedly to
run our economy into the ground (discussion for another time).
We will continue to provide the latest and most prevalent
economic information, our viewpoint will always take into account the
principles of innovation, trending and clear transparency.
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